The Indiana Pacers welcome the struggling Sacramento Kings to Gainbridge Fieldhouse tonight in what could be a pivotal matchup for both teams' playoff ambitions.
While the Pacers fight to maintain their fourth seed in the Eastern Conference (just one game ahead of Detroit), the Kings are desperately clinging to the Western Conference's final play-in spot with a paper-thin margin over Phoenix and a concerning 3-7 record in their last ten outings.
The perimeter battle might tell the story - Sacramento's dead-last 3-point defense faces Indiana's seventh-ranked long-range shooting as the home team Pacers look to replicate their dominant 122-95 victory over the away team Kings from earlier this season.
Indiana Pacers vs. Sacramento Kings prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Indiana Pacers vs Sacramento Kings matchup, our predictive model gives the Pacers a 73% chance of defeating the Kings.
Pre-game probabilities
Indiana Pacers
Moneyline
Win %
73%
27%
Sacramento Kings
Indiana Pacers: 73% win probability
- Offensive efficiency (8670 points scored this season, 5th best in the league)
- Home court advantage (43-31 overall record with strong scoring at home)
- Momentum factor (3-2 in last five games with recent wins against quality opponents)
Sacramento Kings: 27% win probability
- Recent poor form (1-4 in last five games showing inconsistency)
- Road game challenges (36-38 overall record suggests struggles away from home)
- Defensive vulnerability (8569 points allowed, worse than Indiana's defensive record)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Indiana Pacers | Sacramento Kings | |
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| Moneyline |
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Indiana Pacers vs. Sacramento Kings preview
The struggling Sacramento Kings limp into Gainbridge Fieldhouse Monday night clinging to the Western Conference's final play-in spot with their postseason hopes hanging by a thread.
DeMar DeRozan has been a bright spot for Sacramento, dropping 21 points in their recent blowout loss to Orlando, while former Pacer Domantas Sabonis returns to his old stomping grounds looking to improve on his 14-point, 13-rebound effort from Saturday.
Indiana, meanwhile, sits precariously in the East's fourth seed, just one game ahead of Detroit despite going 7-3 in their last ten contests.
The matchup presents a glaring weakness for the Kings to exploit – they rank dead last in the NBA in perimeter defense while facing a Pacers squad that's seventh in three-point shooting percentage.
Tyrese Haliburton continues to be the engine that drives Indiana's offense, having torched Washington for 29 points on 60% shooting in their last victory before stumbling against OKC.
When these teams faced off earlier this season, the Pacers absolutely demolished Sacramento 122-95, suggesting a long night ahead for the Kings.
Though Pacers home fans can take comfort in their team's stellar 24-10 record at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, they'll need to monitor the status of Bennedict Mathurin, who remains a game-time decision.
I'm expecting an offensive showcase with both teams pushing pace – the Kings ranked 10th in tempo – but Indiana's home-court advantage and three-point proficiency should prove too much for Sacramento to handle.
Indiana Pacers vs. Sacramento Kings form
Indiana Pacers vs. Sacramento Kings head to head
Indiana Pacers
40%
Sacramento Kings
60%
Mar 31, 2025
Indiana Pacers
0 : 0
Sacramento Kings
Dec 22, 2024
Sacramento Kings
95 : 122
Indiana Pacers
Feb 3, 2024
Indiana Pacers
122 : 133
Sacramento Kings
Jan 19, 2024
Sacramento Kings
121 : 126
Indiana Pacers
Feb 4, 2023
Indiana Pacers
107 : 104
Sacramento Kings
Dec 1, 2022
Sacramento Kings
137 : 114
Indiana Pacers
