With the Boston Celtics holding a commanding 3-1 series lead, the Orlando Magic face elimination in Game 5 at TD Garden where they've struggled mightily, losing their last eight playoff contests.
The Magic will need Paolo Banchero to replicate his 31-point Game 4 performance while hoping to limit Boston's parade to the free-throw line, where the Celtics converted 30 of 32 attempts in their previous victory.
Despite Orlando's third-ranked defense, Jayson Tatum's dominance (37 points, 14 rebounds in Game 4) and Boston's home-court advantage make this a steep uphill battle for the visitors.
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic matchup, our predictive model gives the Celtics a 68.33% chance of defeating the Magic.
Pre-game probabilities
Boston Celtics
Moneyline
Win %
68.33%
31.67%
Orlando Magic
Boston Celtics: 68.33% win probability
- Elite point production (9534 points scored, 2nd in NBA)
- Defensive dominance (NBA-best 8787 points allowed all season)
- Consistent winning culture (61-21 record, 2nd in Eastern Conference)
Orlando Magic: 31.67% win probability
- Limited offensive firepower (8645 points scored, lowest among playoff teams)
- Mediocre overall record (41-41, just barely above .500)
- Inconsistent performance (Recent form shows volatility despite LWWWW streak)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Boston Celtics | Orlando Magic | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic preview
The Boston Celtics are on the verge of advancing to the second round as they host the Orlando Magic in Game 5 at TD Garden, where they've won their last eight playoff contests.
Paolo Banchero has been Orlando's offensive lifeline, pouring in 31 points in Game 4, but the Magic were ultimately undone by Boston's efficiency at the free-throw line where the Celtics shot a remarkable 30-for-32.
Jayson Tatum's dominant 37-point, 14-rebound performance powered Boston's pivotal road win on Sunday, with the Celtics showing championship mettle by locking down defensively in the final minutes.
Despite showcasing elite defense all season (ranked 1st in points allowed), Orlando has struggled to contain Boston's versatile offense when it matters most.
The Magic will need Franz Wagner to provide substantial offensive support for Banchero if they hope to extend the series, while Boston could be dealing with injury concerns as Jrue Holiday remains day-to-day and Jaylen Brown is listed as questionable.
The clash presents a fascinating tactical battle between Boston's deep offensive arsenal and Orlando's defensive grit, though the Celtics' home-court advantage and playoff experience make this elimination game an uphill battle for the seventh-seeded Magic.
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic form
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic head to head
Boston Celtics
17%
Orlando Magic
83%
Apr 27, 2025
Orlando Magic
98 : 107
Boston Celtics
Apr 25, 2025
Orlando Magic
95 : 93
Boston Celtics
Apr 23, 2025
Boston Celtics
109 : 100
Orlando Magic
Apr 20, 2025
Boston Celtics
103 : 86
Orlando Magic
Apr 9, 2025
Orlando Magic
96 : 76
Boston Celtics
Jan 18, 2025
Boston Celtics
121 : 94
Orlando Magic
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