The Indiana Pacers look to defend home court and take a commanding 3-1 series lead against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday after dropping Game 3 in a lopsided 126-104 defeat.
Donovan Mitchell's explosive 43-point performance powered Cleveland's bounce-back win, but Indiana—who won both games in Cleveland to open the series—aims to regain momentum at Gainbridge Fieldhouse where they've been formidable throughout the playoffs.
With no injuries reported for either squad, this pivotal Eastern Conference semifinal showdown features two of the NBA's most potent offenses that combined for over 230 points in their first two meetings.
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers prediction: who will win?
For today's Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers matchup, our predictive model gives the Cavs a 67.5% chance of defeating the Pacers.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 67.5% win probability
- League-leading record (64-18 in the Eastern Conference)
- Elite defensive efficiency (9217 points allowed, 2nd best in the league)
- Sustained excellence (recent form includes 3 wins in last 5 games)
Indiana Pacers: 32.5% win probability
- Weaker defensive performance (9441 points allowed, 10th in Eastern Conference)
- Significant win differential (50 wins vs Cleveland's 64 wins)
- Lower overall standing (4th in East vs Cleveland's 1st place position)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers odds
Here are the latest odds for this NBA showdown as the Indiana Pacers host the Cleveland Cavaliers at home on Sunday, May 11.
| Indiana Pacers | Cleveland Cavaliers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +185 (via Caesars Sportsbook) | -205 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) |
Best NBA sportsbook promos
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers preview
The Pacers look to defend home court and push Cleveland to the brink of elimination in this pivotal Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Sunday night.
After steamrolling the Cavaliers in Games 1 and 2, Indiana was completely overwhelmed on Friday as Donovan Mitchell exploded for 43 points in Cleveland's dominant 126-104 victory.
The Cavs' dominance on the glass was particularly telling, as they outrebounded Indiana 56-37 and never trailed in a game where they led by as many as 26 points.
Indiana's second-quarter collapse—scoring just 13 points—proved catastrophic, turning a tie game into a 21-point halftime deficit they couldn't overcome.
The series has all the makings of a high-scoring affair, with both teams ranking among the league's most explosive offenses and each showing a willingness to push tempo when given the opportunity.
Bennedict Mathurin's 23-point performance in the Game 3 loss offers a silver lining for the Pacers, who'll need more production from stars Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton if they hope to regain control of the series.
Key stats
- 1Cleveland Cavaliers lead the Eastern Conference with 64 wins, giving them the best record in the East
- 2Indiana Pacers hold the 4th position in the Eastern Conference with a respectable 50-32 record
- 3Pacers' recent form shows improvement with 3 wins in their last 5 games (WLWWW), while Cavs have been inconsistent (LWLWL)
- 4Cleveland has posted an impressive +782 point differential this season, while Indiana has a more modest +183
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers form
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers head to head
Indiana Pacers
67%
Cleveland Cavaliers
33%
May 9, 2025
Indiana Pacers
104 : 126
Cleveland Cavaliers
May 6, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
119 : 120
Indiana Pacers
May 4, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
112 : 121
Indiana Pacers
Apr 13, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
118 : 126
Indiana Pacers
Apr 10, 2025
Indiana Pacers
114 : 112
Cleveland Cavaliers
Jan 15, 2025
Indiana Pacers
117 : 127
Cleveland Cavaliers
Betting on the NBA?
Sporting Post is your trusted source for NBA betting. We deliver expert NBA predictions, top NBA picks, and the latest NBA odds. Our detailed game analysis and real-time insights help you bet with confidence. Plus, we’ve reviewed and tested the best NBA betting sites to ensure you’re using safe and trusted online sportsbooks, the best betting apps, and betting sites.
Related
