NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/13/2025

The Pacers have absolutely dominated this series, now sitting just one win away from the Eastern Conference Finals after a 20-point dismantling of Cleveland in Game 4. What's particularly impressive is Indiana's offensive balance – they had seven players score in double figures on Sunday while building a stunning 41-point halftime lead.

Cleveland's problems run deeper than just the 3-1 series deficit. Donovan Mitchell is questionable with an ankle injury he sustained during Game 4 warmups, a potentially devastating blow to a team already struggling. Even with Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and DeAndre Hunter back in the lineup, the Cavs couldn't avoid another defeat.

The Pacers have proven they can win in Cleveland, having already taken two road games in this matchup. They've also won 6 of their last 8 meetings with the Cavaliers overall, suggesting this isn't just a playoff fluke but a genuine matchup advantage. Indiana's offensive scheme has consistently exposed Cleveland's defensive vulnerabilities.

History isn't on Cleveland's side either – few teams have overcome 3-1 deficits, though ironically the Cavs did pull it off in the 2016 Finals. But that team had LeBron James, while this squad might be without their best player in Mitchell. The Cavaliers' backs are against the wall, and desperation rarely translates to composed basketball.

While the line suggests oddsmakers expect Cleveland to respond at home, multiple expert sources agree the value lies with Indiana. The Pacers have covered the spread in their last eight playoff games against the Cavaliers at Rocket Arena, and they've won four of their last five games as underdogs. This generous spread provides excellent cushion for a team playing with rhythm and confidence.

Mathurin enters Game 5 with fresh legs after his early ejection in Game 4 following an incident with DeAndre Hunter that limited him to just one minute of action. Prior to that abbreviated appearance, he was on a scoring tear with back-to-back games of 19 and 23 points against these same Cavaliers.

The second-year guard has cleared this prop in two of his last three full games in the series, and Cleveland has shown no answer for his bench scoring punch. The Cavaliers' perimeter defense has been particularly vulnerable, allowing opponents to shoot 37.6% from deep over the past three games.

Mathurin's shooting confidence against Cleveland is well-established, as he's shooting an impressive 39% from three-point range in his last 10 games against the Cavs. This familiarity with their defensive schemes should help him find clean looks from beyond the arc.

As Indiana looks to close out the series, they'll need contributions from their entire rotation. With the Cavaliers likely focusing defensive attention on Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, Mathurin should get plenty of opportunities as a secondary scoring option when he checks into the game.

The +152 odds represent substantial value for a prop that requires just two made threes from a confident shooter against a struggling perimeter defense. Even if Mitchell returns for Cleveland, their defensive rotations have been inconsistent throughout the series, creating open opportunities for shooters like Mathurin.

Garland has been finding his rhythm since returning from injury, coming off his best game of the series where he posted 21 points on efficient 6-for-11 shooting in Game 4. While the toe injury still limits some aspects of his game, his three-point shooting shouldn't be affected.

With Donovan Mitchell's status uncertain due to an ankle injury, Garland's offensive responsibilities will likely expand significantly. As Cleveland's primary ballhandler and creator, he'll be forced to shoulder more of the scoring load in this elimination game.

The numbers support this prop as Garland has cleared the 2+ made threes line in three of his four postseason games played. During the regular season, he was a 40.1% three-point shooter, demonstrating his ability to connect consistently from deep.

In head-to-head matchups with Indiana, Garland's three-point shooting has been reliable, averaging 2.1 threes per game over his last 10 contests against the Pacers while shooting 36.8% from beyond the arc. The familiarity with Indiana's defensive schemes should work in his favor.

While the Cavaliers' backs are against the wall, desperation should translate to aggressive offensive play from their primary stars. Expect Garland to hunt his shot early and often as Cleveland tries to extend their season, making this a solid prop bet despite the relatively short odds.

The defending champion Nuggets find themselves in an unusual position as double-digit underdogs heading into Game 5 in Oklahoma City. While the Thunder have been impressive, this spread appears significantly inflated for a Denver team with championship DNA and proven playoff resilience.

Oklahoma City's youth and athleticism have certainly presented problems for Denver, but the Nuggets' experience in high-pressure situations can't be overlooked. Nikola Jokić remains the best player on the floor, and we've seen Denver make tactical adjustments throughout this series to slow down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder attack.

The computer models strongly favor this bet, with Dimers' simulations indicating a 2.5% edge and 54.4% probability that Denver covers. That's significant market value on a spread that seems to be overreacting to the Thunder's home-court advantage and momentum.

Denver's coaching staff, led by Michael Malone, has consistently demonstrated the ability to make critical mid-series adjustments, particularly when facing elimination. Expect a more disciplined defensive effort from the Nuggets, who understand they need to control the pace to remain competitive.

Even if the Nuggets ultimately lose the game and series, this double-digit cushion provides significant value. Championship-caliber teams rarely go down without a fight, and Denver has the veteran leadership to keep this contest competitive deep into the fourth quarter.