NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/15/2025

The total for tonight's Thunder-Nuggets elimination game has dropped significantly to 216, the lowest of the entire series after previously ranging between 221.5 and 232 points.

This creates clear value on the Over considering the offensive firepower on both sides, led by Nikola Jokic (averaging 30 PPG in the series with two 40+ point games) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (30+ points in five of his last seven playoff games).

While recent games have trended lower, we can't overlook that Game 1 finished 121-119 and Game 2 saw an explosive 149-106 Thunder victory, showing these teams' scoring potential.

Denver brings balanced offensive production with five players averaging double figures, including Jamal Murray (22.3 PPG) and Aaron Gordon (17.8 PPG) complementing Jokic.

With OKC looking to close out and Denver fighting for survival, expect both teams to unleash their offensive arsenals in what should be a higher-scoring affair than the recent line movement suggests.

Jokic has been Denver's offensive anchor throughout this series, averaging exactly 30 points per game and twice exploding for 40+ point performances.

With the Nuggets facing elimination at home, expect Jokic to shoulder an even heavier scoring burden as Denver's primary offensive weapon.

The Thunder have struggled to contain Jokic consistently throughout the series, and defensive adjustments have primarily focused on limiting Denver's supporting cast.

In elimination games throughout his career, Jokic has historically elevated his scoring output, understanding the need to be more aggressive.

The low projected total (216) doesn't necessarily mean Jokic will score less - it likely reflects expectations of tighter defense on role players while stars like Jokic continue producing at high levels.

SGA has been in scorching form during the playoffs, putting up 30+ points in five of his past seven games according to the expert analysis.

As the Thunder's clear offensive leader and soon-to-be NBA MVP, Gilgeous-Alexander will be looking to close out this series rather than risk a Game 7 back in Oklahoma City.

The Nuggets' defense has yet to find an answer for SGA's three-level scoring ability, with his mid-range game particularly effective against Denver's defensive schemes.

The stakes of a potential series-clinching game should lead to increased usage for Oklahoma City's best player, with more ball-handling responsibilities and shot attempts.

While the total has dropped, star players typically maintain or increase their scoring in crucial playoff games, making SGA's scoring prop an attractive option despite the lower game total.