NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/24/2025

The Timberwolves find themselves in a must-win situation at home after dropping the first two games in Oklahoma City, and historical playoff data suggests they should bounce back at Target Center.

Minnesota has won nine of their last 10 home games, giving them a significant advantage as the series shifts venues, while the Thunder have lost nine of their last 10 playoff road games against Northwest Division opponents.

Shot variance should improve for the Timberwolves at home, with role players likely to shoot better from beyond the arc in front of their home crowd, while Oklahoma City may see fewer free-throw attempts away from their building.

What's killed Minnesota so far has been turnover disparity, particularly in those devastating third quarters where OKC has blown the game open. If Edwards and company can protect the ball better, they'll limit Oklahoma City's transition opportunities.

The pressure is squarely on Minnesota, but they've typically performed well as home underdogs against Northwest Division teams, covering the spread in each of their last six such matchups.

With the series shifting to Minnesota for Game 3, the Timberwolves find themselves in desperation mode after two convincing losses in Oklahoma City, making this effectively a must-win situation.

The Timberwolves have been a completely different team at home this season, winning nine of their last 10 games at the Target Center, which should help them keep this one close at minimum.

Anthony Edwards bounced back from a poor Game 1 with 32 points in Game 2, suggesting he's finding his rhythm despite the losses, while Julius Randle (2-11 shooting) and Mike Conley (1-6 shooting) are due for better performances after struggling mightily.

Minnesota will need to address their third-quarter woes, where Oklahoma City has completely dominated this series, but playing in front of their home crowd should help stabilize them during those critical stretches.

The betting trends favor Minnesota in this spot, as the Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six road games against Northwest Division opponents that held a winning record.

While not explicitly recommended in the articles, the under presents strong value when analyzing the defensive adjustments both teams are likely to make in this pivotal Game 3.

Minnesota coach Chris Finch will surely emphasize defensive discipline after complaining about officiating and watching his team get burned in transition, leading to a more controlled pace than we saw in Oklahoma City.

The Timberwolves will need to minimize live-ball turnovers that have fueled OKC's devastating transition game, which likely means a more deliberate offensive approach and fewer possessions overall.

Road playoff games typically see tighter defense and more physical play, which could affect Oklahoma City's offensive efficiency away from their home court for the first time in this series.

With Minnesota fighting for their playoff lives and understanding they can't win a shootout against the explosive Thunder, expect them to try slowing the pace and turning this into a half-court grind.