NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/26/2025

The Timberwolves have shown a dramatic offensive improvement at home, averaging 116.8 points in front of their fans compared to just 102.1 on the road during the playoffs. Their 3-point efficiency jumps 6.4% at home, which was evident in Game 3 where seven different Minnesota players knocked down multiple threes.

Oklahoma City ranks 2nd among all playoff teams in pace and leads in fastbreak points per game, ensuring a faster tempo that benefits the over. Despite having an off night in Game 3, they still managed 101 points and have been held under 100 just once this postseason.

Minnesota finished the regular season 4th overall in 3-point percentage, showing they can maintain their shooting efficiency. Their Game 3 offensive explosion (143 points) wasn't a fluke but rather a return to their typical home form.

Both teams have the firepower to contribute to a high-scoring affair. The Thunder had surpassed 110 points in each game before Game 3, and should bounce back offensively while Minnesota looks to build on their home shooting success.

With the series intensity increasing and both teams looking to score in transition, the pace should remain high. The total has strong value at 218.5 and remains playable up to 220.5 according to expert analysis.

The Timberwolves have been dominant at home during these playoffs, posting a 5-1 record at Target Center. They've lost just three home games total since February 24, showing their comfort level at home is significant and provides real value as underdogs.

Minnesota's betting trends support taking them with points, as they've covered the spread in each of their last seven games as home underdogs against Northwest Division opponents. This specific situational trend shows they perform above expectations in this exact scenario.

The home team has won each of the Thunder's last six playoff games, indicating a strong home-court pattern in this postseason. Additionally, Oklahoma City has lost seven of their last eight Western Conference Finals road games, suggesting a historical struggle in this high-pressure road situation.

The Timberwolves showed in Game 3 they can put together a complete 48-minute performance against the Thunder after hanging tough for halves in the first two games. Their offensive explosion demonstrated their ceiling when playing at home.

With no injuries reported for Minnesota, they'll have their full complement of weapons including Anthony Edwards (26.5 PPG), Julius Randle (22.8 PPG), and their defensive specialists. The Wolves should build on their Game 3 momentum and have a strong chance to win outright.

The Timberwolves demonstrated their true potential in Game 3 with a convincing performance, finally playing a complete game after showing flashes in the first two contests. Their home court advantage at Target Center has been substantial this postseason with a 5-1 record.

Minnesota's offensive output jumps dramatically at home during these playoffs, averaging 14.7 more points per game than on the road. This home/road split was evident in Game 3 where they exploded for 143 points and had seven different players hit multiple three-pointers.

The Thunder have lost seven of their last eight Western Conference Finals road games, showing a pattern of struggle in this specific high-pressure situation. The series has followed the home-court advantage pattern so far, with the home team winning each game.

Anthony Edwards (26.5 PPG) and Julius Randle (22.8 PPG) give Minnesota the star power needed to match Oklahoma City's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. With the Wolves' improved shooting at home and defensive versatility, they match up well against the Thunder.

With Minnesota's backs against the wall to avoid a 3-1 deficit, expect maximum effort and execution from a team that's historically played well as home underdogs. Their 16-5 ATS record in their last 21 games as home dogs suggests they not only cover but often win outright in this spot.