Bournemouth welcome Aston Villa to the Vitality Stadium this weekend with both sides chasing European qualification, though Villa's heavy schedule appears to be taking its toll on their away form.
The Cherries enter the clash in strong home form, unbeaten in their last two league matches at the Vitality, while Villa have struggled on their travels, failing to defeat Bournemouth in their last three away league encounters.
Brazilian forward Evanilson, who has netted eight goals in his last 13 matches, could prove decisive as Andoni Iraola's aggressive front-foot outfit looks to capitalize against a Villa side showing signs of fatigue.
Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa prediction: who will win?
For today's Bournemouth vs Aston Villa matchup, our predictive model gives Villa a 52% chance of defeating the Cherries.
Pre-game probabilities
Aston Villa
Moneyline
Win %
52%
48%
Bournemouth
Aston Villa: 52% win probability
- Superior attacking threat (55 goals scored this season compared to Bournemouth's 55)
- Excellent recent form (WLWWW - won 4 of last 5 matches)
- Higher league position (7th with 60 points compared to Bournemouth's 8th with 53 points)
Bournemouth: 48% win probability
- Less clinical in front of goal (55 goals scored despite playing more attacking football)
- Inconsistent recent form (WDDWD - only 1 win in their last 5 matches)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (42 goals conceded this season)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts..
| Bournemouth | Aston Villa | Draw | |
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Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa preview
Fresh off their impressive 2-1 triumph over Arsenal, Bournemouth look to continue their solid home form when they welcome an Aston Villa side with European ambitions to the Vitality Stadium.
The Cherries have found their stride under Andoni Iraola, going unbeaten in their last two home fixtures, while Villa enter this clash having edged past Fulham 1-0 in their previous outing.
Brazilian striker Evanilson, who scored a dramatic 96th-minute equalizer when these sides drew 1-1 back in October, brings red-hot form into the match with eight goals in his last 13 appearances.
Villa's away form remains a concern for Unai Emery, having won just seven of 17 road games this season, potentially showing the toll of their demanding Champions League and FA Cup campaigns.
Both teams face significant injury concerns, with Bournemouth missing Dango Ouattara and Enes Ünal, while Villa will be without the influential Youri Tielemans despite his decisive goal against Fulham.
History suggests goals at both ends—ten of their last 14 meetings have seen both teams score—setting up what promises to be an intriguing battle between two sides with European aspirations.
Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa form
Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa head to head
Bournemouth
50%
Aston Villa
50%
Oct 26, 2024
Aston Villa
1 : 1
Bournemouth
Apr 21, 2024
Aston Villa
3 : 1
Bournemouth
Dec 3, 2023
Bournemouth
2 : 2
Aston Villa
Mar 18, 2023
Aston Villa
3 : 0
Bournemouth
Aug 6, 2022
Bournemouth
2 : 0
Aston Villa
Feb 1, 2020
Bournemouth
2 : 1
Aston Villa
