Aston Villa head into Friday's Premier League clash against Tottenham with momentum on their side, boasting seven consecutive home wins and fighting for a coveted Champions League spot.
Spurs, meanwhile, arrive at Villa Park with one eye clearly on next week's Europa League final against Manchester United, likely fielding a weakened squad and showing poor league form with just one point from their last five matches.
This strategic mismatch creates a prime opportunity for Unai Emery's men to capitalize on Tottenham's divided attention and secure three crucial points in their top-five pursuit.
Aston Villa vs. Tottenham prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Aston Villa vs Tottenham matchup, our predictive model gives the Villa a 80% chance of defeating the Spurs.
Pre-game probabilities
Aston Villa
Moneyline
Win %
80%
20%
Tottenham
Aston Villa: 80% win probability
- Exceptional home form (Recent form of WWLWW indicates strong momentum)
- Superior league position (6th place with 63 points compared to Tottenham's 17th)
- Better defensive record (49 goals conceded vs Tottenham's 59)
Tottenham: 20% win probability
- Poor recent form (LDLLL shows significant struggle in recent matches)
- Dreadful away record (Contributing to their 20 losses this season, more than double Villa's 9)
- Defensive vulnerability (59 goals conceded, showing significant weakness at the back compared to top-half teams)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts.
Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts.
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result |
Aston Villa vs. Tottenham preview
Aston Villa welcome Tottenham to Villa Park riding a remarkable seven-match home winning streak as they push for a coveted Champions League berth.
Unai Emery's men enter Friday's clash buoyed by consecutive victories over Fulham and Bournemouth, with talismanic striker Ollie Watkins looking to build on his match-winning performance last time out.
Spurs arrive in Birmingham with their focus potentially elsewhere – Ange Postecoglou's side face Manchester United in the Europa League final next week and have collected just one point from their last five Premier League outings.
The visitors will likely field a weakened lineup with key players like Son Heung-min and Micky van de Ven potentially rested or limited to late cameos, while Villa will miss midfielder Jacob Ramsey through suspension.
John McGinn is pushing for a start in Villa's midfield engine room as the hosts aim to capitalize against a Tottenham side whose last four defeats have seen three come by multiple goals.
Though Spurs won the reverse fixture 4-1 back in November, Villa's current home form and determined push for top-five status stands in stark contrast to their distracted visitors.
Aston Villa vs. Tottenham form
Aston Villa vs. Tottenham head to head
Aston Villa
67%
Tottenham
33%
Feb 9, 2025
Aston Villa
2 : 1
Tottenham
Nov 3, 2024
Tottenham
4 : 1
Aston Villa
Mar 10, 2024
Aston Villa
0 : 4
Tottenham
Nov 26, 2023
Tottenham
1 : 2
Aston Villa
May 13, 2023
Aston Villa
2 : 1
Tottenham
Jan 1, 2023
Tottenham
0 : 2
Aston Villa
