Chelsea travel to The City Ground for a high-stakes Premier League finale as both sides chase Champions League qualification, with Nottingham Forest needing a victory to stand any chance of securing a top-five finish.
The in-form Blues have won six of their last seven matches and look primed to capitalise against a Forest side that has lost three of their last four home games.
Despite their recent struggles at home, the Tricky Trees will hope to build on their recent 2-1 victory against West Ham and upset Maresca's confident Chelsea squad.
Nottingham vs. Chelsea prediction: who will win?
For today's Nottingham vs Chelsea matchup, our predictive model gives the Blues a 77.5% chance of defeating the Reds.
Pre-game probabilities
Chelsea
Moneyline
Win %
77.5%
22.5%
Nottingham
Chelsea: 77.5% win probability
- Superior goal output (63 goals scored this season, significantly higher than Nottingham's 58)
- Better recent form (WLWWW compared to Nottingham's WDDLW)
- Stronger defensive record (43 goals conceded versus Nottingham's 45)
Nottingham: 22.5% win probability
- Inconsistent recent results (only 1 win in last 5 matches, with WDDLW form)
- Lower goal conversion rate (58 goals from 37 matches compared to Chelsea's 63)
- Vulnerable home form (7th in table but struggling to maintain consistency at home)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts..
| Nottingham | Chelsea | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result |
Nottingham vs. Chelsea preview
Nuno Espírito Santo's Nottingham Forest face a mountainous challenge as they welcome an in-form Chelsea side to The City Ground in a high-stakes season finale that could determine both clubs' European ambitions.
The Tricky Trees have stumbled at the worst possible time, winless in their last three home matches and desperately needing victory to keep any Champions League hopes alive.
Chelsea arrive with momentum firmly behind them, having won six of their last seven matches including a clinical 1-0 victory over Manchester United last time out, with Marc Cucurella proving the unlikely hero.
The Blues' defensive solidity has been remarkable, conceding just four goals in their last six outings while Forest's backline continues to look vulnerable, having been breached in six consecutive matches before their impressive win at West Ham.
Forest will need to overcome their recent home struggles without striker Taiwo Awoniyi, while Chelsea's injury concerns include Christopher Nkunku and both Fofanas – potentially opening the door for Pedro Neto to continue his impressive recent form.
When these sides met earlier this season, they played out an entertaining 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge, but with fifth place and potential Champions League qualification at stake, Maresca's men will be desperate to go one better at a ground where they've remained unbeaten in their last three league visits.
Nottingham vs. Chelsea form
Nottingham vs. Chelsea head to head
Nottingham
33%
Chelsea
67%
Oct 6, 2024
Chelsea
1 : 1
Nottingham
May 11, 2024
Nottingham
2 : 3
Chelsea
Sep 2, 2023
Chelsea
0 : 1
Nottingham
May 13, 2023
Chelsea
2 : 2
Nottingham
Jan 1, 2023
Nottingham
1 : 1
Chelsea
Jan 5, 2020
Chelsea
2 : 0
Nottingham
