Arsenal aim to continue their impressive 13-match unbeaten away record as they visit relegation-bound Southampton at St. Mary's Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
The Gunners enter this clash with momentum after a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Newcastle, while the Saints remain rooted to the bottom of the table with just 12 points following their sixth defeat in seven matches.
With Arsenal winning the reverse fixture 3-1 earlier this season and Southampton conceding in five of their last six games, Mikel Arteta's men look primed to capitalize on the hosts' defensive frailties despite missing key defenders Gabriel and Tomiyasu.
Southampton vs. Arsenal prediction: who will win?
For today's Southampton vs Arsenal matchup, our predictive model gives the Gunners a 82.5% chance of defeating the Saints.
Pre-game probabilities
Arsenal
Moneyline
Win %
82.5%
17.5%
Southampton
Arsenal: 82.5% win probability
- Exceptional defensive record (33 goals conceded, 2nd best in the league)
- Strong away form (consistently in the top positions with 71 points, 2nd in the table)
- Balanced attack and defense (67 goals scored, 33 conceded, for a +34 goal difference)
Southampton: 17.5% win probability
- Dreadful defensive record (84 goals conceded, worst in the league)
- Poor recent form (LDLLD in last five matches)
- Minimal offensive threat (25 goals scored, lowest in the league)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts..
| Southampton | Arsenal | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result |
Southampton vs. Arsenal preview
Arsenal will look to extend their impressive 13-match unbeaten away run in the Premier League when they visit already-relegated Southampton at St Mary's on Sunday.
The Saints' home form has been dismal, failing to secure a victory in their last 13 league fixtures at St Mary's, while their defensive frailties have seen them concede in five of their last six matches.
Mikel Arteta's Gunners come into this fixture following a confidence-boosting 1-0 victory over Newcastle, though they'll be without key defender Gabriel Magalhães and forward Gabriel Jesus through injury.
The reverse fixture in October saw Arsenal triumph 3-1 with goals from Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka – the latter two likely to feature prominently again this weekend.
Southampton, under Simon Rusk, will need to find something special to overcome their recent poor record against the Gunners, having failed to beat Arsenal in their last three league encounters.
While the hosts might find the net through the likes of Ross Stewart or Cameron Archer, who scored in their previous meeting, Arsenal's superior quality should ultimately prove decisive.
Southampton vs. Arsenal form
Southampton vs. Arsenal head to head
Southampton
25%
Arsenal
75%
Oct 5, 2024
Arsenal
3 : 1
Southampton
Apr 21, 2023
Arsenal
3 : 3
Southampton
Oct 23, 2022
Southampton
1 : 1
Arsenal
Apr 16, 2022
Southampton
1 : 0
Arsenal
Dec 11, 2021
Arsenal
3 : 0
Southampton
Jan 26, 2021
Southampton
1 : 3
Arsenal
