Newcastle welcome Arsenal to St James' Park on Sunday in what could be a defensive masterclass rather than a goal-fest, with both sides having built their early season form on rock-solid backlines.
The Magpies have managed just three goals in five Premier League outings but conceded only three times, while Arsenal arrive having kept clean sheets in five of their last seven games across all competitions.
With under 2.5 goals landing in 10 of the last 11 meetings between these sides, this fixture promises tactical discipline over entertainment as both teams look to grind out three crucial points.
Newcastle vs. Arsenal prediction: who will win?
For this afternoon's Newcastle vs Arsenal matchup, our predictive model gives the Gunners a 70% chance of defeating the Magpies.
Newcastle: 30% win probability
- Toothless in attack with only 0.6 goals per game (3 goals in 5 matches)
- Inconsistent form reflected in just 6 points from 5 games, sitting 15th in the table
- Struggled for wins with only 1 victory all season and recent form showing DWDLD
Arsenal: 70% win probability
- Clinical attack averaging 2 goals per match (10 goals in 5 games)
- Outstanding defensive record conceding just 0.4 goals per game (2 goals against in 5 matches)
- Strong recent form with 10 points from 5 games and currently 7th in the table
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts.
Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts.
Newcastle vs. Arsenal Odds
Newcastle vs. Arsenal preview
Newcastle have built their early-season identity around defensive solidity at St James' Park, conceding just three goals in five Premier League outings - all of which came in that dramatic 3-2 defeat to Liverpool.
Arsenal arrive on Tyneside looking to extend their unbeaten run after that gritty point against Manchester City, though Mikel Arteta will be without key figures Martin Ødegaard, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus through injury.
The Magpies' attack remains a work in progress with Alexander Isak's departure to Liverpool still affecting their rhythm up front, managing only three goals across their opening five fixtures.
This fixture has historically favoured the defenders, with under 2.5 goals hitting in 10 of the last 11 meetings between these sides and clean sheets a regular feature.
Arsenal's away form suggests they're content to grind out results on the road, having scored just once in two Premier League trips so far this season.
Both sides have shown they can keep things tight at the back, setting up what could be a tactical chess match rather than an end-to-end thriller in the north east.