Aston Villa's three-match winning streak meets a stubborn Burnley defence in what promises to be a cagey affair at Villa Park, with both sides struggling to create clear-cut chances this season.
Villa have shown resilience under Unai Emery but averaged just 0.82 expected goals in games where they've dominated possession, whilst Scott Parker's Clarets have conceded the most chances in the league despite building their game around defensive solidity.
With the two sides combining for just 10 goals in six league matches and Jaidon Anthony carrying Burnley's attacking threat after scoring in four of his last five appearances, this clash could hinge on who breaks the pattern first.
Aston Villa vs. Burnley prediction: who will win?
For this afternoon's Aston Villa vs Burnley matchup, our predictive model gives Villa an 80% chance of defeating the Clarets.
Aston Villa: 80% win probability
- Better league position sitting 16th compared to Burnley's 18th place
- Superior goal difference at -2 versus Burnley's woeful -7
- Recent upturn in form with a win in their last match breaking a poor run
Burnley: 20% win probability
- Dreadful away record contributing to just 4 points from 6 matches played
- Leaky defence conceding 13 goals in only 6 games this season
- Poor recent form with 4 losses in their last 5 league fixtures
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts.
Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts.
Aston Villa vs. Burnley Odds
Aston Villa vs. Burnley preview
Aston Villa welcome Burnley to Villa Park riding a three-match winning streak, though the underlying numbers suggest their recent form might be more fragile than it appears.
Both sides arrive with worrying attacking statistics - Villa and Burnley have combined for just 10 goals in six Premier League games, representing the league's two lowest Expected Goals tallies.
Scott Parker's Burnley have shown defensive resilience after their Championship promotion, but face a Villa side coming off Thursday's Europa League victory at Feyenoord, their seventh match in just 23 days.
The visitors will look to Jaidon Anthony, who has found the net in four of his last five appearances and could exploit any fatigue in Villa's ranks.
Villa's possession-heavy style hasn't translated to clear-cut chances this season, averaging just 0.82 xG when dominating the ball, which plays into Burnley's defensive approach.
With both attacks struggling for fluency and Parker's pragmatic setup likely to frustrate Villa's rhythm, this could develop into the kind of cagey affair where moments of individual quality prove decisive.