Regular-season inter-conference duals between playoff-caliber teams always attract attention. Tonight's March 7th matchup between the Heat and Mavericks is no exception. The Heat are traveling to the American Airlines Center to face Dallas, a 5-point home favorite.
This will be the Mavericks' second back-to-back home game. After Tuesday's 137-120 loss against the Pacers, Dallas cannot afford another loss, considering they have lost five of their last six games. Miami is more relaxed after outsourcing the Pistons 118-110 on Tuesday at home.
The Heat is on a roll with seven wins in their last eight games. What makes this run more impressive is that bookie apps saw Miami as a longshot in four out of those seven matchups. Let's examine the odds for this NBA matchup, which is available for betting with a DraftKings sports promo code.
The Mavericks Rely Exclusively on Doncic
Dallas is experiencing a crisis. They have lost five out of their last six games, and excuses are not available. The roster is healthy, and their star player, Luka Doncic, is playing at an MVP level. The team might have gotten overconfident after recording a seven-game winning streak that ended on February 26th. Now, they are paying the price.
Diagnosing Dallas's issues is not difficult. The offense is unstoppable, thanks to Luka's impressive stats. He leads the league with 34.6 points, 9.8 assists, and nine rebounds per game. Doncic receives adequate support from Kyrie Irving and Tim Hardaway Jr., with Kyrie producing an average of 25.7 points per game and Hardaway scoring 16.3 points per game.
Overall, Dallas generates 118.7 points per game, shooting 48% from the floor and 37.3% from the three-point line, and ranks 6th in offensive efficiency. However, the Mavericks are not committed to protecting their rim, allowing 118.3 points per game and ranking 24th in defensive efficiency.
The Heat Prioritize Team Effort
The Miami Heat are the 6th seed in the Eastern Conference and are exceeding expectations lately. Miami is the opposite of Dallas, playing better on defense than offense, ranking 20th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. This team scores 110.8 points per game and shoots 46.5% from the field and 37.5% from beyond the arc.
The offense revolves around Jimmy Butler, who scores 21.9 points per contest and distributes 4.8 assists per game. Bam Adebayo consistently generates double-doubles with 20.4 points and 10.3 rebounds per night. However, the Heats’ second-best scorer, Tyler Herro, is out due to a knee injury.
Herro’s absence should not be a big handicap for Miami, considering Duncan Robinson shoots 40.6% from beyond the arc and scores 13.3 points on average. The latest addition to the roster, Terry Rozier, is consistent with 13.9 points per game. On the other side of the ball, Miami concedes 109.9 points, and playing defense at a high level is one reason why they are surprising favorites regularly.
Betting Prediction
Dallas cannot prevent opponents from scoring, while Miami is skillful in containing opponents on defense. These teams are trending in opposite directions. The only things the Mavericks have going in their favor are home-court advantage and Luka’s efficiency. However, the Heat is not to be underestimated.
The best free bets sites with free offers provide -205 odds for a moneyline bet on the Mavericks and +170 odds on the Heat. The point spared offers -110 odds on both teams to cover, and the same -110 betting line applies to the Over and Under bets for the 228.5 points total.
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