The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets square off at American Family Field on Friday night in what betting models project as a true coin flip, with both teams carrying identical 50% win probabilities.
Milwaukee enters with a strong 70-44 record and home-field advantage, while the Mets sit at 63-52 but boast superior pitching metrics with the sixth-best team ERA in baseball.
With Kodai Senga facing Brandon Woodruff in a quality pitcher's duel and the Brewers favored at -145, this matchup offers solid betting value on both sides of what should be a tightly contested game.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets matchup, our predictive model gives the Brewers a 62.5% chance of defeating the Mets.
Milwaukee Brewers: 62.5% win probability
- League-leading .614 winning percentage shows consistent excellence (70-44 record)
- Superior run differential of +127 demonstrates offensive and defensive balance (570 runs scored, 443 allowed)
- Perfect recent form with five straight wins (WWWWW) heading into this contest
New York Mets: 37.5% win probability
- Inconsistent recent play with four losses in last five games (LLLLW form)
- Middle-tier offensive production at 501 runs scored ranks 6th in National League
- Road struggles evident as they sit 13 games behind division-leading Philadelphia despite solid overall record
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets preview
The Brewers return to American Family Field riding momentum as one of baseball's most productive offenses, averaging 5.00 runs per game while the Mets have struggled to generate consistent production at just 4.4 runs per contest.
Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff brings impressive career credentials to the mound with a 3.06 ERA and strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.58, facing off against Kodai Senga who has posted solid numbers with a 2.76 ERA despite the Mets' offensive struggles.
The pitching staffs tell contrasting stories - Milwaukee ranks 4th in baseball allowing just 3.93 runs per nine innings while New York sits middle of the pack, though both teams have dealt with bullpen inconsistency throughout the season.
Milwaukee's lineup has been clicking with 176 doubles and a .330 on-base percentage, providing the kind of balanced attack that could exploit New York's pitching staff that has surrendered 102 home runs this season.
With the Brewers holding a seven-game edge in the standings at 70-44 versus New York's 63-52 record, this series opener carries weight for both clubs as they navigate the final stretch of the regular season.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets form
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets head to head
Milwaukee Brewers
33%
New York Mets
67%
Jul 3, 2025
New York Mets
3 : 2
Milwaukee Brewers
Jul 2, 2025
New York Mets
7 : 3
Milwaukee Brewers
Jul 2, 2025
New York Mets
2 : 9
Milwaukee Brewers
Oct 3, 2024
Milwaukee Brewers
2 : 4
New York Mets
Oct 2, 2024
Milwaukee Brewers
5 : 3
New York Mets
Oct 1, 2024
Milwaukee Brewers
4 : 8
New York Mets
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