The hotly awaited European Championships, Euro 2024 for short, creeps closer, so much so that we’re now just two weeks away from the start of the biggest footballing event of the year.
Not only is this the biggest football tournament of the year, but it’ll also be one of the biggest betting events, so what better time to dig into the historical betting data and find out how pre-tournament favourites typically do at the Euros?
How do favourites usually perform?
Without remembering, or without looking back through, it would be easy to assume that the team favoured in the pre-tournament outright betting usually wins the European Championships, but is that the case?
When the Euros last took place, back in 2021, thanks to the delay of the COVID pandemic, the Italians triumphed, beating England in the final via a penalty shootout, as Three Lions’ fans will remember all too well.
At the previous tournament, were the Italians the outright favourites? No, they were not. They were in fact sixth favourites before the competition began. According to the pre-tournament betting market, England entered the tournament as joint outright favourites, along with France, and they went close, reaching the final.
Do outsiders ever thrive?
Can an outsider win Euro 2024? Well, nothing is impossible, we only have to look back to 2004, when Greece won the tournament despite being priced at 150/1 in the outright betting, to see that.
However, how often do outsiders thrive? I suppose it’s all relative. If a big outsider makes it to the knockouts, possibly even the quarters or the semis, then that can be seen as thriving, right?
After all, when Wales reached the semi-finals back in 2016, they thrived, there can be no denying that, and since they entered the tournament at 25/1 in the outright market, they certainly outperformed their odds by reaching the last four.
Below you will see some recent examples of outsiders performing well at the European Championships.
In addition to Wales outperforming a quite chunky pre-tournament price in 2016, a few other outsiders have impressed over the last couple of decades.
Denmark reached the last four when considered 25/1 outsiders in 2021, while if we go back to 2008, both Turkey and Russia made it to the semi-finals, despite being given little chance of success at the start of the tournament.
While big outsiders winning this competition has been a rarity in modern times, it’s far from unusual for the odd outsider to go deep into the tournament.
Results of the last five Euro favourites
Shown below you’ll see the last five pre-tournament favourites, what price they were and where they finished.
We can see from the table above that the team considered the pre-tournament favourite according to the UK betting market typically performs well.
As mentioned in our first Euro 2024 betting odds piece, only one of the last five Euro favourites has claimed the title, with Spain confirming favouritism back in 2012, but three of the last five favourites have reached the final, meaning that each of the last four favourites have either reached the final or won the competition.
At the end of the day, those setting the odds aren’t daft. Teams are usually hotly fancied for a reason, and bookmakers aren’t typically in the business of giving punters big chances.
In other words, they don’t make a habit of laying generous prices on teams that are expected to do very well.
Outright odds of previous Euro winners
We’ve seen that favourites typically do well at the European Championships, even if they don’t always get over the line and pick up the trophy.
Now let’s look at the outright odds of the last five winners of this sought after footballing prize.
Whilst the pre-tournament favourite has done very well in recent years, reaching the final (at least) in each of the last four renewals, only one favourite has emerged victorious.
As the table above shows, only one of the last five winners entered the tournament as the favourite.
Two of the last five winners have come from the first two in the outright betting, and in only one of the last five (none of the last four) has a big, big outsider gone on to win.
2016 winners Portugal were minor outsiders at 16/1, but they were still sixth in the betting, which given that 24 teams entered, certainly doesn’t put them in the category of total outsider.
Is it worth betting on the favourite?
It’s probably fair to conclude by saying that those topping the betting do well when it comes to European Championships. Only one of the last four pre-tournament favourites has won the competition, but you’d have to go back to 2004 to find the last time that the favourite didn’t reach the final, so don’t be too quick to discount the Euro 2024 market leader, even if it is the English!
