The first Friday of June has arrived, which means that summer is right around the corner, as is Euro 2024.
It’s now exactly one week until the opening day of the European Championships, which will be held in Germany, and we’re back with more pre-tournament betting tips.
This time around, we’re looking at player betting, specifically focusing on the ‘Player of the Tournament’ market.
Euro 2024 tips: Player of the tournament prediction & tips
This is a little different from typical pre-tournament betting markets such as the top scorer market, purely in the sense that it’s just not as crystal clear.
If you bet on a player to be the top scorer, they either score the most goals or they don’t, with simple goal stats determining the outcome.
When it comes to the ‘Player of the Tournament’ market, we’re betting on the player to win an award decided by UEFA representatives.
Essentially, UEFA typically awards this accolade to a high-performing player in one of the two final-reaching teams, typically the winner, as we’ll see below.
There’s plenty of debate over whether or not UEFA correctly award this trophy, but what the hell, I’m going to get involved anyway.
This year, the betting looks competitive and as far as I'm concerned, there’s not really a huge standout favourite, such as Lionel Messi who was hugely fancied (and duly delivered) at the previous World Cup.
As the odds below indicate, there are plenty of familiar names at the top of the market, but with something like this, I generally like to look a little further afield, and as there are so many quality players to choose from, that doesn’t necessarily mean siding with no-hopers.
In fact, to my eyes, both Florian Wirtz (Germany) and Bruno Fernandes (Portugal) have a realistic shot at taking the title of ‘Player of the Tournament’.
Read on for a full explanation of why I’m pointing my money in the direction of the above players in this market.
‘Player of the Tournament’ betting odds
Here is how the current betting market for the ‘Player of the Tournament’ award currently shapes up:
Previous winners
Before we get stuck into the picks ahead of Euro 2024, let’s look at the previous winners of this rather prestigious individual accolade (since 2000), shown in the table below, complete with country, where their country finished at the Euros and the club they played for at the time of the competition beginning.
As the table above shows, those awarding the ‘Player of the Tournament’ badge heavily favour players from teams that, at the very least, reach the final.
On the one hand, this makes sense, but on occasion, it’s probably not quite fair, as some players can have outstanding individual tournaments even if their nation falls at the semi-final hurdle for example, but that’s just the way it goes.
Too big to ignore
Of course, with so many top players on show, many of which represent the big nations, each of whom could very easily win this tournament if everything goes right, there are several potential winners of this award.
However, if we’re looking at it from a value point of view and thinking who may just have a better chance than the odds suggest then I’m struggling to find two better options than Florian Wirtz and Bruno Fernandes.
We’ll start with the German, who really does go into this tournament off the back of a fantastic season domestically.
As Bayer Leverkusen made history in the Bundesliga, ending Bayern Munich’s reign, winning their first ever title and becoming the first ever unbeaten champion, Wirtz starred.
The youngster played a pivotal role in Xabi Alonso’s attack-minded Leverkusen side, scoring 11 goals and registering 11 assists in the league, adding a further 15 goals and assists in cup competitions.
This will be his first major tournament for Germany, but after being one of the most important teams in a title winning Bundesliga team, Wirtz looks set for a massive role in Julian Nagelsmann’s set-up.
At just 21, Wirtz is eligible for ‘Young Player of the Tournament’, and he’s quite hotly fancied to scoop that award (7/1), and I am indeed a supporter of him there too, but such is his likely importance to this German team, I think he could easily take the big-boy individual accolade if his team thrives.
Secondly, I think Bruno Fernandes is far too big for this. Sure, if Portugal do well, UEFA will likely be falling over themselves to give Cristiano Ronaldo the award, but I’m really not too sure that the veteran forward, who is now 39, is going to play the leading role that people expect him to here.
In contrast, Fernandes is at the top of his game having finished the domestic season strong with a big performance in Manchester United’s FA Cup triumph over rivals Manchester City, and we know that he’s one of the big leaders in this Portuguese team.
As mentioned when recommending him in the top Premier League scorer article, Fernandes enjoyed a decent individual season, despite United’s rather clear struggles, scoring 15 goals, registering 13 assists in all competitions.
What’s more, he has an excellent record of leading by example for Portugal. Just the other night, he came off the bench in a friendly against Finland to boss proceedings, scoring two wonderfully taken goals, again showing his ability to beat keepers from range.
If Ronaldo doesn’t play the role of old, then Fernandes can take his place, and even if the veteran striker gets plenty of game time, he may still struggle to outshine a Fernandes that looks set to play a huge role for what is a very strong-looking Portugal side.
Recap - Player of the tournament prediction & tips
To confirm, we’re recommending the following bets ahead of upcoming European Championships:
Florian Wirtz Player of the Tournament @ 25/1 (bet now with bet365)
Bruno Fernandez Player of the Tournament @ 40/1 (bet now with bet365)
