Premier League leaders Liverpool face a stern test of their title credentials as they travel to Villa Park for a highly anticipated clash against Aston Villa, with the visitors looking to maintain their seven-point advantage at the top of the table.
The Reds enter the fixture following a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Wolves, while Villa's recent form has been concerning with four league matches without a win, including a disappointing 1-1 draw against ten-man Ipswich Town.
Villa Park has proven to be a fortress this season with the hosts losing just two of their 20 home matches across all competitions, though Liverpool's impressive record of eight goals in their last three visits to this ground suggests an intriguing battle lies ahead.
Both sides are dealing with notable absences, as Villa continue without key defenders Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres, while Liverpool manager Arne Slot will have to plan without Joe Gomez and Tyler Morton.
This crucial fixture could have significant implications for both Liverpool's title aspirations and Villa's pursuit of Champions League football, with the historical head-to-head record favouring the visitors who remain unbeaten in their last eight league encounters against the Villans.
Aston Villa vs. Liverpool prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Aston Villa vs Liverpool matchup, our predictive model gives the Reds a 75% chance of defeating the Villans.
Pre-game probabilities
Liverpool
Moneyline
Win %
75%
25%
Aston Villa
Liverpool: 75% win probability
- Exceptional attacking prowess (60 goals scored - highest in the league)
- Strong defensive record (24 goals conceded - second-best in the league)
- Excellent form (WDWWW - unbeaten in last 5 matches)
Aston Villa: 25% win probability
- Inconsistent recent form (DLDDW - only 1 win in last 5 matches)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (38 goals conceded - 9th worst in the league)
- Limited goal-scoring output (35 goals scored - 11th in the league)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts..
| Aston Villa | Liverpool | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| match-winner |
Aston Villa vs. Liverpool preview
A pivotal Premier League clash awaits at Villa Park as title-chasing Liverpool face an Aston Villa side looking to maintain their impressive home record in what promises to be a thrilling midweek encounter.
The Reds arrive in Birmingham having secured a hard-fought 2-1 victory against Wolves, maintaining their position at the summit of the Premier League table, though their recent performances have shown signs of vulnerability with no shots registered in the second half at Anfield.
Villa, despite their formidable home record of just two losses in 20 matches this season, enter this fixture following a disappointing 1-1 draw against ten-man Ipswich Town, extending their winless run to four league matches.
The hosts' injury concerns continue to mount with Boubacar Kamara, Ross Barkley, Matty Cash, Pau Torres, and Ezri Konsa all sidelined, potentially hampering Unai Emery's tactical options.
Liverpool's talisman Mohamed Salah, leading the Premier League scoring charts with 23 goals, will be crucial to the visitors' chances, particularly given their impressive record of eight goals in their last three visits to Villa Park.
The historical context adds intrigue to this fixture, with Liverpool maintaining the upper hand in recent meetings, remaining unbeaten in their last eight league encounters against Villa.
The Reds' impressive away form, having gone unbeaten in their last 15 league matches on the road, will be tested against a Villa side that hasn't lost in their previous 12 home league fixtures.
This match marks the beginning of a crucial week for Liverpool, who face Manchester City and Newcastle in their following fixtures, making these three points potentially decisive in their title pursuit.
With both teams demonstrating a tendency for high-scoring affairs, as evidenced by Liverpool's recent matches averaging 3.5 goals, spectators can anticipate an entertaining clash between two attack-minded sides.
Given the recent form and historical precedent, Liverpool appear slight favourites, though Villa Park's fortress-like atmosphere could yet prove decisive in what promises to be a closely contested affair.
Aston Villa vs. Liverpool form
Aston Villa vs. Liverpool head to head
Aston Villa
0%
Liverpool
100%
Nov 9, 2024
Liverpool
2 : 0
Aston Villa
May 13, 2024
Aston Villa
3 : 3
Liverpool
Sep 3, 2023
Liverpool
3 : 0
Aston Villa
May 20, 2023
Liverpool
1 : 1
Aston Villa
Dec 26, 2022
Aston Villa
1 : 3
Liverpool
May 10, 2022
Aston Villa
1 : 2
Liverpool
