Aston Villa welcome Chelsea to Villa Park for what promises to be a captivating Premier League clash, with the hosts boasting an impressive run of just one defeat in their last 14 home matches whilst Chelsea arrive struggling with their away form.
The Villans enter the match buoyed by a spirited 2-2 draw against league leaders Liverpool, whilst Chelsea look to bounce back from a concerning 3-0 defeat at Brighton that highlighted their recent defensive frailties.
Both sides face significant selection challenges, with Villa missing key defender Pau Torres through injury, while Chelsea's attacking options are limited by the absences of Nicolas Jackson and Noni Madueke, setting the stage for an intriguing tactical battle between Unai Emery and Enzo Maresca's sides.
With Villa unbeaten in their last 13 home matches across all competitions and Chelsea winless in their last six away fixtures, this Premier League encounter could prove pivotal for both teams' aspirations this season.
Aston Villa vs. Chelsea prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Aston Villa vs Chelsea matchup, our predictive model gives the Villa a 70% chance of defeating the Blues.
Pre-game probabilities
Aston Villa
Moneyline
Win %
70%
30%
Chelsea
Aston Villa: 70% win probability
- Strong defensive record (40 goals conceded in 26 matches, averaging 1.54 per game)
- Consistent point accumulation (39 points from 26 matches, maintaining top-half position)
- Resilient drawing ability (9 draws, joint-third highest in league, showing ability to avoid defeats)
Chelsea: 30% win probability
- Inconsistent form (Recent form LWLWD shows vulnerability)
- Defensive fragility (34 goals conceded, higher than top-4 teams)
- Away performance concerns (Only 12 wins in 25 matches, indicating struggles on the road)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts..
| Aston Villa | Chelsea | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| match-winner |
Aston Villa vs. Chelsea preview
A highly anticipated Premier League clash awaits as Aston Villa welcome Chelsea to Villa Park for what promises to be an enthralling Saturday evening encounter.
The Villans enter the match following an impressive 2-2 draw against league leaders Liverpool, where Ollie Watkins and Youri Tielemans demonstrated their attacking prowess with well-taken goals.
Chelsea, meanwhile, are experiencing a concerning dip in form, having suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat to Brighton and remaining winless in their last six away fixtures.
Villa's home record has been particularly formidable, with just one defeat in their last 14 home matches, coming against Arsenal, while maintaining an impressive 13-match unbeaten run across all competitions at Villa Park.
The Blues' manager Enzo Maresca faces mounting pressure, with his side struggling to find consistency and dealing with significant injury concerns, including the absences of Nicolas Jackson, Wesley Fofana, and Benoît Badiashile.
Villa's in-form striker Ollie Watkins, who has scored in his last three home appearances, will be looking to exploit Chelsea's vulnerable defence, which has managed just one clean sheet since Christmas.
The historical context adds intrigue to this fixture, with Chelsea unbeaten in their last three league visits to Villa Park, including a convincing 3-0 victory in their most recent meeting in December.
Both sides have demonstrated their attacking capabilities this season, but defensive frailties have been evident, with Villa conceding in their last six matches and Chelsea shipping 12 goals in their previous six outings.
Given the current form and circumstances, this match has all the ingredients for an exciting, high-scoring affair, with a 2-2 draw looking a likely outcome as both teams continue their pursuit of European qualification.
Aston Villa vs. Chelsea form
Aston Villa vs. Chelsea head to head
Aston Villa
50%
Chelsea
50%
Dec 1, 2024
Chelsea
3 : 0
Aston Villa
Apr 27, 2024
Aston Villa
2 : 2
Chelsea
Feb 7, 2024
Aston Villa
1 : 3
Chelsea
Jan 26, 2024
Chelsea
0 : 0
Aston Villa
Sep 24, 2023
Chelsea
0 : 1
Aston Villa
Apr 1, 2023
Chelsea
0 : 2
Aston Villa
