Premier League leaders Liverpool head to the Etihad Stadium for a crucial clash against Manchester City, with the visitors having scored two or more goals in an impressive 18 of their last 19 league matches.
The Citizens enter this fixture in a vulnerable position, having conceded 12 goals in their last five competitive matches and facing the prospect of a trophyless season following their Champions League exit to Real Madrid.
Mohamed Salah's remarkable run of scoring in seven consecutive competitive appearances adds another layer of intrigue to this heavyweight encounter, whilst City's defensive concerns are further complicated by the absences of John Stones, Manuel Akanji, and Rodri through injury.
Recent history between these sides suggests a closely fought battle, with their last six meetings producing an average of 2.83 goals per game and honours relatively even with two wins apiece and two draws.
This fixture marks a rare occasion where Manchester City find themselves as underdogs at home in the Premier League for the first time in a decade, setting the stage for what promises to be a fascinating tactical battle between two of English football's most formidable sides.
Manchester City vs. Liverpool prediction: who will win?
For today's Manchester City vs Liverpool matchup, our predictive model gives the Reds a 70% chance of defeating the Citizens.
Pre-game probabilities
Liverpool
Moneyline
Win %
70%
30%
Manchester City
Liverpool: 70% win probability
- League-leading attack (62 goals scored, highest in the league)
- Exceptional form (DWDWW, unbeaten in last 5 matches)
- Best defensive record (Only 1 loss in 26 matches played)
Manchester City: 30% win probability
- Inconsistent form (WLWWD, mixed results in recent matches)
- Defensive vulnerability (35 goals conceded compared to Liverpool's 26)
- Points gap to leaders (17 points behind Liverpool with 44 points from 25 matches)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts..
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| match-winner |
Manchester City vs. Liverpool preview
A pivotal Premier League clash awaits as Manchester City host Liverpool at the Etihad Stadium, with the Citizens finding themselves in the unfamiliar position of being home underdogs for the first time in a decade.
The timing of this fixture couldn't be more crucial for City, who are reeling from a devastating Champions League exit to Real Madrid and have conceded an alarming 12 goals in their last five competitive matches.
Liverpool, currently leading the Premier League, arrive in formidable scoring form, having netted at least twice in 18 of their last 19 league fixtures, though they've drawn their last two away matches.
The spotlight will undoubtedly be on Mohamed Salah, who has been in sensational form with goals in seven consecutive competitive appearances and boasts an impressive 49 goal contributions in 37 outings this season.
Manchester City's defensive concerns are compounded by significant absences, with John Stones, Oscar Bobb, Manuel Akanji, and crucially, Rodri, all unavailable for selection.
The historical context adds another layer of intrigue, as Liverpool haven't secured an away victory against City in their last eight league encounters, a statistic they'll be desperate to overturn.
Recent head-to-head meetings between these rivals have been closely contested, with their last six clashes producing 17 goals and an even split of two victories apiece alongside two draws.
The Reds' attacking prowess, coupled with City's recent defensive frailties, suggests we could witness another high-scoring affair, with Liverpool's current form making them slight favourites to secure a rare away victory at the Etihad.
With City's hopes of silverware now largely pinned on the FA Cup, this match could prove decisive in determining whether Pep Guardiola's side can salvage their season or if Liverpool will strengthen their grip on the Premier League title race.
Manchester City vs. Liverpool form
Manchester City vs. Liverpool head to head
Manchester City
50%
Liverpool
50%
Dec 1, 2024
Liverpool
2 : 0
Manchester City
Mar 10, 2024
Liverpool
1 : 1
Manchester City
Nov 25, 2023
Manchester City
1 : 1
Liverpool
Apr 1, 2023
Manchester City
4 : 1
Liverpool
Dec 22, 2022
Manchester City
3 : 2
Liverpool
Oct 16, 2022
Liverpool
1 : 0
Manchester City
