Nottingham Forest welcome Arsenal to the City Ground for a crucial Premier League clash, with the hosts boasting an impressive record of six wins and one draw in their last seven home fixtures.
The Gunners arrive in Nottingham struggling with significant injury concerns, missing key attackers Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka, and Gabriel Martinelli, while Forest's Chris Wood looks to continue his remarkable home scoring form having netted ten times at the City Ground this season.
Forest's formidable home record, where they've lost just twice all season, sets up an intriguing battle against an Arsenal side that has won only 42% of their away matches this campaign, suggesting this midweek encounter could prove to be a tighter affair than the reverse fixture's 3-0 Arsenal victory.
With Forest's recent 4-3 defeat at Newcastle highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities and Arsenal coming off a disappointing loss to West Ham, both sides will be desperate to bounce back in what promises to be a compelling Premier League matchup.
Nottingham vs. Arsenal prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Nottingham vs Arsenal matchup, our predictive model gives Arsenal a 52.5% chance of defeating Forest.
Pre-game probabilities
Arsenal
Moneyline
Win %
52.5%
47.5%
Nottingham
Arsenal: 52.5% win probability
- Superior goal difference (+28 compared to Nottingham's +11)
- Better defensive record (23 goals conceded vs 33)
- Higher points per game ratio (2.04 vs 1.81)
Nottingham: 47.5% win probability
- Lower scoring efficiency (44 goals in 26 matches vs Arsenal's 51)
- Inconsistent recent form (LLWLW with 3 losses in last 5)
- Higher goals conceded per game (1.27 vs Arsenal's 0.88)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts..
| Nottingham | Arsenal | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| match-winner |
Nottingham vs. Arsenal preview
The City Ground is set to host a compelling Premier League clash between Nottingham Forest and Arsenal in Round 27, with both sides looking to bounce back from recent setbacks.
The Tricky Trees, who suffered a thrilling 4-3 defeat at Newcastle United, return to their fortress where they've been remarkably strong this season, winning six and drawing one of their last seven home fixtures.
Arsenal's title aspirations took a significant blow following their disappointing loss to West Ham United, leaving them with only a 42% win rate in away matches this season.
The home side's striking sensation Chris Wood will be one to watch, having netted an impressive ten goals at The City Ground this season, including eight strikes in his last eight Premier League appearances.
The Gunners face significant selection challenges with several key players sidelined, including Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz, and Takehiro Tomiyasu, while Myles Lewis-Skelly is suspended.
Forest manager Nuno Espírito Santo will be relatively fortunate with injuries, missing only goalkeeper Carlos Miguel, as his side aims to maintain their impressive home record.
Historical context adds intrigue to this fixture, with Arsenal winning four of the last six meetings between these sides, including a commanding 3-0 victory in their most recent encounter last November.
However, Forest's remarkable home form this season, including a notable draw against league-leaders Liverpool, suggests they could pose a serious challenge to the struggling Gunners.
With Arsenal's depleted squad and Forest's home advantage, this match promises to be a closely contested affair that could well end in a sharing of the spoils.
Nottingham vs. Arsenal form
Nottingham vs. Arsenal head to head
Nottingham
33%
Arsenal
67%
Nov 23, 2024
Arsenal
3 : 0
Nottingham
Jan 30, 2024
Nottingham
1 : 2
Arsenal
Aug 12, 2023
Arsenal
2 : 1
Nottingham
May 20, 2023
Nottingham
1 : 0
Arsenal
Oct 30, 2022
Arsenal
5 : 0
Nottingham
Jan 9, 2022
Nottingham
1 : 0
Arsenal
