The Amex Stadium hosts a crucial Premier League clash between Brighton and Aston Villa on Wednesday night, with European qualification hopes on the line for both ambitious sides.
While Brighton seek to bounce back from their FA Cup shootout disappointment against Forest, they'll fancy their chances given they've won their last three league games at home—though they'll need to crack a Villa side that's won five straight matches across all competitions.
The contrast between Brighton's home fortress mentality and Villa's questionable away form—having won just two of their last ten league travels—sets up a fascinating tactical battle between Fabian Hurzeler's Seagulls and Unai Emery's Champions League Villa side.
Brighton vs. Aston Villa prediction: who will win?
For today's Brighton vs Aston Villa matchup, our predictive model gives the Seagulls a 70% chance of defeating the Villans.
Pre-game probabilities
Brighton
Moneyline
Win %
70%
30%
Aston Villa
Brighton: 70% win probability
- Currently on a four-match winning streak (DWWWW form) showing excellent momentum
- Strong attacking threat with 48 goals scored this season, ranking them among the top scoring teams
- Equal on points with Newcastle but having played one more match, showing consistent point collection
Aston Villa: 30% win probability
- Poor defensive record with 45 goals conceded, more than most teams above them in the table
- Inconsistent recent form (WLWDD) showing vulnerability in away fixtures
- Despite being 9th in the table, they've won fewer matches (12) than Brighton with the same number of games played
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts..
| Brighton | Aston Villa | Draw | |
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Brighton vs. Aston Villa preview
Brighton welcome Aston Villa to the Amex this Wednesday in what promises to be a cracking Premier League showdown with European implications for both sides.
The Seagulls, still smarting from their FA Cup shootout defeat to Forest, have been nearly impregnable at home lately, winning their last three league matches at the Amex against quality opposition.
Villa, despite their recent five-match winning streak across all competitions, have struggled on their travels with just two league victories in their last ten away fixtures—a concerning stat for Unai Emery's Champions League contenders.
The visitors might be buoyed by their comfortable 3-0 FA Cup triumph over Preston, but breaking down Brighton's home fortress is an entirely different proposition.
Keep an eye on Joao Pedro, Brighton's in-form striker who found the net in three consecutive league outings before drawing blank against Manchester City.
For Villa, the possible returns of Ollie Watkins and John McGinn to the starting eleven could provide the creative spark they'll desperately need, while Ross Barkley faces a late fitness test.
The battle will likely be won or lost in midfield, with both managers keen to establish control in what should be a tactically fascinating chess match.
Everything points to a tight affair that might end honors even—though I wouldn't bet against the Seagulls continuing their impressive home form.
Brighton vs. Aston Villa form
Brighton vs. Aston Villa head to head
Brighton
20%
Aston Villa
80%
Dec 30, 2024
Aston Villa
2 : 2
Brighton
May 5, 2024
Brighton
1 : 0
Aston Villa
Sep 30, 2023
Aston Villa
6 : 1
Brighton
May 28, 2023
Aston Villa
2 : 1
Brighton
Nov 13, 2022
Brighton
1 : 2
Aston Villa
Feb 26, 2022
Brighton
0 : 2
Aston Villa
