Chelsea's grip on their top-four spot has loosened considerably since mid-December, yet they're seeking a sixth consecutive home victory at Stamford Bridge where they've proven nearly impenetrable lately.
Tottenham, sitting uncomfortably in 14th place, have shown flashes of improvement with the return of key defenders Romero and Van de Ven, but their troubling away record against the Blues (winless in their last six visits) suggests an uphill battle.
Both sides enter Thursday's clash in patchy form, setting the stage for what could be another goal-filled London derby between Chelsea vs Tottenham.
Chelsea vs. Tottenham prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Chelsea vs Tottenham matchup, our predictive model gives the Blues a 77.5% chance of defeating the Spurs.
Pre-game probabilities
Chelsea
Moneyline
Win %
77.5%
22.5%
Tottenham
Chelsea: 77.5% win probability
- Superior offensive output (53 goals scored this season, 4 more than Tottenham)
- Better league position (6th place with 49 points compared to Tottenham's 14th place with 34 points)
- Stronger recent form (LWWLL showing 3 wins in last 5 matches versus Tottenham's LDLWW with only 2 wins)
Tottenham: 22.5% win probability
- Poor defensive record (43 goals conceded, significantly worse than top teams)
- Inconsistent away performance (14th in the table with just 34 points after 29 matches)
- Alarming loss record (15 defeats already this season, more than any team in the top half)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts..
| Chelsea | Tottenham | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result |
Chelsea vs. Tottenham preview
Thursday's London derby at Stamford Bridge presents a clash of two inconsistent sides, with fourth-placed Chelsea looking to bounce back from their 1-0 defeat to Arsenal while Spurs aim to recover from a disappointing 2-0 loss to Fulham.
The Blues boast an impressive home record, seeking their sixth consecutive win at the Bridge, but their recent Premier League form raises questions – they've won just four of their last 13 league matches, all against bottom-five teams.
Spurs' defensive reinforcements could prove crucial, with Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven now fit, though they'll miss key attacking threat Dejan Kulusevski through injury.
History favors the hosts in this fixture as Chelsea remain unbeaten against Tottenham in their last three league meetings, while Spurs haven't won at Stamford Bridge in their last six attempts.
Cole Palmer, who netted twice in Chelsea's 4-3 win at Tottenham earlier this season, remains the danger man for the Blues if he's fit for Thursday's clash.
Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, with Spurs conceding in each of their last six matches and Chelsea seeing both teams score in ten of their 14 home league games.
The midfield battle could be decisive, with Enzo Fernandez – fresh from scoring for Argentina – looking to find the net against Spurs for the second time this season.
Despite Chelsea being favorites, don't be shocked if this ends all square – neither side has shown the consistency needed to confidently back a winner in what promises to be another entertaining chapter in this fierce London rivalry.
Chelsea vs. Tottenham form
Chelsea vs. Tottenham head to head
Chelsea
80%
Tottenham
20%
Dec 8, 2024
Tottenham
3 : 4
Chelsea
May 2, 2024
Chelsea
2 : 0
Tottenham
Nov 6, 2023
Tottenham
1 : 4
Chelsea
Feb 26, 2023
Tottenham
2 : 0
Chelsea
Aug 14, 2022
Chelsea
2 : 2
Tottenham
Jan 23, 2022
Chelsea
2 : 0
Tottenham
