Goodison Park braces for a crucial clash as a resurgent Everton side, unbeaten in their last five home league fixtures, welcome an Arsenal team potentially distracted by their upcoming Champions League showdown with Real Madrid.
The Toffees, despite narrowly losing the Merseyside derby, have shown remarkable resilience under David Moyes, while the Gunners appear vulnerable on the road having failed to win three of their last five away games despite their demolition of PSV.
With key injuries plaguing both squads—Calvert-Lewin, McNeil and Mangala for the home team, and Calafiori, Gabriel, Havertz, Tomiyasu and Jesus for the away team—Saturday's encounter promises to be a fascinating tactical battle.
Everton vs. Arsenal prediction: who will win?
For today's Everton vs Arsenal matchup, our predictive model gives the Gunners a 57.5% chance of defeating the Toffees.
Pre-game probabilities
Arsenal
Moneyline
Win %
57.5%
42.5%
Everton
Arsenal: 57.5% win probability
- Strong defensive record (Only 25 goals conceded in 30 matches, second-best in the league)
- Consistent point accumulation (61 points from 30 matches, sitting 2nd in the table)
- Impressive recent form (WWDDL with only one loss in their last five matches)
Everton: 42.5% win probability
- Struggle to convert draws into wins (13 draws, most in the league, but only 7 wins)
- Poor attacking output (32 goals scored in 30 matches, among the lowest in the league)
- Concerning recent form (LDDDD without a win in their last four matches)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts..
| Everton | Arsenal | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result |
Everton vs. Arsenal preview
Everton's narrow 1-0 defeat in the Merseyside derby might've stung, but the Toffees have been remarkably difficult to beat at Goodison Park since David Moyes' January return, going unbeaten in their last five home league fixtures.
Arsenal, fresh off a 2-1 victory against Fulham thanks to goals from Mikel Merino and Bukayo Saka, find themselves with significant injury concerns as Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel, Kai Havertz, and Gabriel Jesus all remain sidelined for Saturday's clash.
The Gunners' away form has been a bit wobbly lately, winning just two of their last five competitive road games, which might give Everton hope of snatching something from this fixture.
Everton's resilience under Moyes has been impressive, with only three defeats since his return and none of those coming at home where they've managed to hold both Liverpool and Manchester United to draws.
With Bukayo Saka back from injury and looking sharp for the visitors, his battle against Vitaliy Mykolenko down Arsenal's right flank could prove decisive.
Arsenal's potential distraction with their upcoming Champions League clash against Real Madrid might play into Everton's hands, particularly as the title race seems all but over with Liverpool 12 points clear.
The last meeting between these sides ended in a drab 0-0 draw back in December, but with Everton being tough at home and Arsenal's inconsistent away form, we could be in for a tightly-contested affair on Merseyside.
I wouldn't be shocked to see a 1-1 scoreline when all's said and done, especially considering three of Everton's last four matches have ended with that exact result.
Everton vs. Arsenal form
Everton vs. Arsenal head to head
Everton
20%
Arsenal
80%
Dec 14, 2024
Arsenal
0 : 0
Everton
May 19, 2024
Arsenal
2 : 1
Everton
Sep 17, 2023
Everton
0 : 1
Arsenal
Mar 1, 2023
Arsenal
4 : 0
Everton
Feb 4, 2023
Everton
1 : 0
Arsenal
May 22, 2022
Arsenal
5 : 1
Everton
