The West London derby sees a Chelsea side riding high on a five-win streak in their last six matches face a Brentford team desperate to end their eight-game winless run at home, with Bryan Mbeumo's scoring form providing a glimmer of hope for the Bees.
Both teams' defensive frailties could prove crucial – Chelsea haven't kept a clean sheet away from home in nine consecutive matches while Brentford have gone four games without shutting out opponents.
All eyes will be on Gtech Community Stadium this Sunday as Brentford vs Chelsea promises goals, with both teams finding the net in three of their last four meetings.
Brentford vs. Chelsea prediction: who will win?
For today's Brentford vs Chelsea matchup, our predictive model gives the Blues a 77.5% chance of defeating the Bees.
Pre-game probabilities
Chelsea
Moneyline
Win %
77.5%
22.5%
Brentford
Chelsea: 77.5% win probability
- Superior league position (4th place with 52 points compared to Brentford's 12th place)
- Better defensive record (37 goals conceded in 30 matches versus Brentford's 47 in 30)
- Strong recent form (WLWWL) with 3 wins in their last 5 matches
Brentford: 22.5% win probability
- Poor defensive record (47 goals conceded in 30 matches, ranking among the worst in the top half)
- Inconsistent recent form (LWLDW) with only 2 wins in their last 5 matches
- Significant goal difference disparity (+7 for Chelsea versus +4 for Brentford)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts..
| Brentford | Chelsea | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result |
Brentford vs. Chelsea preview
Chelsea head to Brentford's patch with their tails up after that gritty 1-0 victory over Spurs, but their woeful away form—just one win in their last nine road games—should give Bees fans some hope.
Thomas Frank's side desperately need to rediscover their early-season home magic, having gone eight matches without a win at the Gtech Community Stadium, though they've faced particularly tough opposition during this barren run.
Bryan Mbeumo looks the likeliest to trouble Chelsea's backline, having netted in consecutive games and boasting an impressive 16 goals in 30 league appearances this term.
The Blues might have kept four clean sheets in their last six games, but they've conceded in nine straight away matches—a defensive frailty Brentford will surely aim to exploit.
Both managers have injury concerns to navigate, with Brentford missing Mathias Jensen and Rico Henry, while Chelsea's Marc Guiu remains doubtful for this West London derby.
Recent history between these sides offers intrigue, with the Bees unbeaten in five against their wealthier neighbors before Chelsea's narrow 2-1 victory in the reverse fixture.
Given Chelsea's dominance in possession during their December clash (62%) but Brentford's strong goalscoring record against them (11 goals in their last 6 meetings), we're likely in for an entertaining, end-to-end affair.
If I'm putting my neck on the line, I'd back Chelsea to edge this one 2-1, but don't be shocked if Brentford's desperation for home comfort sees them nick a point in a thrilling derby.
Brentford vs. Chelsea form
Brentford vs. Chelsea head to head
Brentford
75%
Chelsea
25%
Dec 15, 2024
Chelsea
2 : 1
Brentford
Mar 2, 2024
Brentford
2 : 2
Chelsea
Oct 28, 2023
Chelsea
0 : 2
Brentford
Apr 26, 2023
Chelsea
0 : 2
Brentford
Oct 19, 2022
Brentford
0 : 0
Chelsea
Apr 2, 2022
Chelsea
1 : 4
Brentford
