Southampton will look to claim their first home victory in 12 league matches when they welcome a faltering Fulham side to St Mary's on Saturday.
The relegated Saints showed fighting spirit in their 1-1 draw against West Ham last weekend, with Lesley Ugochukwu's 93rd-minute equalizer giving them hope of avoiding the unwanted record of matching Derby County's lowest Premier League points tally.
Marco Silva's Cottagers arrive low on confidence after losing four of their last five matches, including a devastating late collapse against Chelsea where they conceded twice in the final minutes to lose 2-1.
Southampton vs. Fulham prediction: who will win?
For today's Southampton vs Fulham matchup, our predictive model gives the Cottagers an 80% chance of defeating the Saints.
Pre-game probabilities
Fulham
Moneyline
Win %
80%
20%
Southampton
Fulham: 80% win probability
- Solid mid-table stability (48 points, 9th place)
- Balanced attack and defense (48 goals scored, 45 conceded)
- Recent momentum with 3 wins in last 5 matches (LLWLW form)
Southampton: 20% win probability
- Bottom of the table position (20th with only 11 points from 33 matches)
- Poorest defensive record in the league (78 goals conceded)
- Inability to secure wins (only 2 victories all season, worst in the league)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts..
| Southampton | Fulham | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result |
Southampton vs. Fulham preview
Southampton will be fighting for pride this weekend after securing a dramatic last-minute equalizer against West Ham last time out, giving the already-relegated Saints rare cause for celebration in what has been a dismal campaign.
Fulham arrive at St. Mary's nursing wounds of their own after a heartbreaking 2-1 defeat to Chelsea, where they led until the 83rd minute before conceding twice late on – their fourth loss in five matches.
Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, with Southampton conceding in their last six matches and Fulham shipping goals in five of their last six, suggesting this could be an open affair despite December's goalless draw at Craven Cottage.
Alex Iwobi continues to be Fulham's bright spark with nine Premier League goals this season, including strikes against both Liverpool and Chelsea recently.
The Saints, desperate to avoid matching Derby County's record-low 11-point season, have shown signs of life by taking points from Crystal Palace and West Ham this month and will sense an opportunity against a Fulham side whose season appears to be petering out.
Simon Rusk must contend with several absences including Ryan Fraser and Albert Grønbæk, while Marco Silva's only major concern is Reiss Nelson, though Rodrigo Muniz and Emile Smith Rowe could return to bolster the visitors' attack.
Southampton vs. Fulham form
Southampton vs. Fulham head to head
Southampton
50%
Fulham
50%
Dec 22, 2024
Fulham
0 : 0
Southampton
May 13, 2023
Southampton
0 : 2
Fulham
Dec 31, 2022
Fulham
2 : 1
Southampton
May 15, 2021
Southampton
3 : 1
Fulham
Dec 26, 2020
Fulham
0 : 0
Southampton
Aug 27, 2019
Fulham
0 : 1
Southampton
