Brighton welcome an in-form Newcastle side to the Amex Stadium on Sunday in what promises to be a goal-packed encounter between two European hopefuls.
The Seagulls aim to build on their dramatic 3-2 comeback win over West Ham, while Newcastle arrive having won seven of their last eight matches across all competitions.
With both teams averaging over three goals per game and dealing with key defensive absences, this clash sets up perfectly for an end-to-end thriller that could significantly impact both clubs' European ambitions.
Brighton vs. Newcastle prediction: who will win?
For today's Brighton vs Newcastle matchup, our predictive model gives the Magpies a 72.5% chance of defeating the Seagulls.
Pre-game probabilities
Brighton
Moneyline
Win %
27.5%
72.5%
Newcastle
Brighton: 27.5% win probability
- Poor recent form (Won only 1 of last 5 matches with WLDLL record)
- Defensive vulnerability (55 goals conceded, 11th worst defensive record)
- Inconsistent home performances (Recent downturn suggests home advantage is minimal)
Newcastle: 72.5% win probability
- Exceptional recent form (Won 4 of last 5 matches with WLWWW record)
- Strong attacking capability (65 goals scored this season, 3rd highest in the league)
- Superior league position (4th with 62 points compared to Brighton's 10th place)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts.
Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts.
| Brighton | Newcastle | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result |
Brighton vs. Newcastle preview
Brighton will look to build on their dramatic 3-2 comeback win over West Ham when they host a red-hot Newcastle side at the Amex on Sunday afternoon.
The Seagulls have been involved in goal-fests recently with over 3.5 goals hitting in each of their last three matches, while Eddie Howe's men arrive having won seven of their last eight games across all competitions.
European qualification remains on the line for both sides, with Newcastle pushing for a Champions League spot while Brighton could still secure Conference League football with a strong finish.
Kaoru Mitoma, who netted a crucial late equalizer against West Ham, is pushing for a start in what promises to be an entertaining clash between two attack-minded outfits.
The visitors will be without Joelinton, Jamaal Lascelles and Lewis Hall through injury, but Alexander Isak continues his remarkable goalscoring form having notched his 22nd league goal in Newcastle's comfortable 3-0 win over Ipswich.
Recent meetings between these sides have produced plenty of fireworks, with Brighton winning three of their last six head-to-head encounters and goals flowing at both ends.
Brighton vs. Newcastle form
Brighton vs. Newcastle head to head
Brighton
67%
Newcastle
33%
Mar 2, 2025
Newcastle
1 : 1
Brighton
Oct 19, 2024
Newcastle
0 : 1
Brighton
May 11, 2024
Newcastle
1 : 1
Brighton
Sep 2, 2023
Brighton
3 : 1
Newcastle
May 18, 2023
Newcastle
4 : 1
Brighton
Aug 13, 2022
Brighton
0 : 0
Newcastle
