Newcastle vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

Newcastle United and Chelsea prepare for a high-stakes Premier League showdown at St. James' Park with Champions League qualification on the line in round 36.

The Magpies, unbeaten in their last five home league matches, will look to Alexander Isak to continue his scoring form after netting the equalizer against Brighton, while Chelsea enter on a hot streak having won five of their last six matches across all competitions.

With Newcastle's impressive home fortress mentality and Chelsea's recent attacking prowess (13 goals in 6 matches), this clash sets up as a compelling battle between two sides with contrasting forms but similar European ambitions.

Newcastle vs. Chelsea prediction: who will win?

For today's Newcastle vs Chelsea matchup, our predictive model gives the Magpies a 70% chance of defeating the Blues.

Newcastle: 70% win probability

Strong home form (19 wins overall with many coming at St. James' Park)
Effective attacking threat (66 goals scored this season, 3rd best attacking record among teams outside top 3)
Momentum advantage (Recent form of DWLWW shows they're in better winning rhythm)

Chelsea: 30% win probability

Defensive vulnerability away from home (41 goals conceded overall indicates potential weaknesses at the back)
Inconsistent results (9 draws this season suggests difficulty in closing out matches)
Lack of decisive wins recently (WWWDD recent form shows they've struggled to secure victories in their last two matches)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts.

Newcastle vs. Chelsea odds

Here are the current odds for Newcastle's Premier League clash against Chelsea at St. James' Park on Sunday, May 11.

	Newcastle	Chelsea	Draw
Match Result	23/20 (via William Hill)	21/10 (via Betway UK)	11/4 ( via Betway UK)

Newcastle vs. Chelsea preview

Newcastle's quest for Champions League football faces a stern test as Chelsea arrive at St. James' Park with both sides desperate for points at this crucial stage of the season.

The Magpies have turned their home ground into a fortress but enter Sunday's clash with mixed recent form—having drawn with Brighton, beaten Ipswich, and fallen to Aston Villa in their last three outings.

Alexander Isak remains Newcastle's danger man after rescuing a point against Brighton last time out, while Eddie Howe will be boosted by Anthony Gordon pushing for a return to the starting lineup.

Chelsea make the trip north after a confidence-building Conference League victory over Djurgarden, with Enzo Maresca's men finding their scoring touch with 13 goals in their last six matches.

The visitors will need to overcome their recent struggles at St. James' Park, having failed to win in their last two league visits to Tyneside.

Both sides are hampered by injuries, with Newcastle missing Joelinton and Jamaal Lascelles, while Chelsea remain without Wesley Fofana and Christopher Nkunku for this potentially season-defining encounter.

Newcastle vs. Chelsea betting tips

Newcastle to Win (6/5)

Chelsea @ Newcastle

Newcastle's home form has been exceptional with six wins and one draw in their last seven games across all competitions.

The Magpies have built an impressive fortress at St James' Park, winning their last four consecutive home matches.

Chelsea's away record tells a concerning story with just one victory in their last nine Premier League road trips.

The Blues' road struggles (W1, D3, L5) contrast sharply with Newcastle's dominance in front of their passionate home support.

With home advantage likely proving decisive, Newcastle look well-positioned to claim all three points on Sunday.

Over 3.5 Goals (7/5)

Chelsea @ Newcastle

Recent trends point to a high-scoring affair with at least four goals scored in three of Newcastle's last five league fixtures.

Chelsea have seen four or more goals in two of their last four Premier League matches, suggesting their games rarely lack excitement.

Newcastle's attacking prowess at St James' Park is particularly noteworthy, having scored at least three goals in each of their last three home games.

The Magpies' home scoring record extends further with at least two goals in six of their last seven matches on Tyneside.

With Chelsea arriving in good form offensively and Newcastle's attacking flair at home, expect the net to bulge frequently on Sunday.

Alexander Isak To Score Anytime (6/5)

Chelsea @ Newcastle

Alexander Isak is in red-hot form with three goals in his last four appearances for Newcastle.

The Swedish striker has been particularly lethal at St James' Park, either scoring or assisting in six consecutive home appearances.

His impressive home record includes five goals and one assist during this streak, making him Newcastle's most dangerous attacking threat.

Chelsea's defense has shown vulnerabilities this season, creating opportunities for a clinical finisher like Isak.

Given his current goal-scoring momentum and excellent home record, Isak looks primed to find the net against the Blues.

Key stats

1
Newcastle and Chelsea both sit at 63 points, separated only by goal difference with Newcastle in 4th and Chelsea in 5th position.
2
Chelsea enters this match with better form, going unbeaten in their last 5 games (WWWDD) while Newcastle has mixed results (DWLWW).
3
Newcastle has scored 66 goals this season (4th highest in the league) and conceded 45, showing they're involved in high-scoring matches.
4
Chelsea's defensive record is slightly better with 41 goals conceded compared to Newcastle's 45, which could be significant in what appears to be an evenly matched contest.