Chelsea will look to maintain their impressive home form as they host a struggling Manchester United side this Friday night at Stamford Bridge, with the Blues fighting for a top-five finish while United appear distracted by their upcoming Europa League final.
The hosts have won five of their last six matches and remain undefeated in their previous nine league games at home, while the Red Devils are winless in seven Premier League fixtures and sit languishing in 16th place.
With Nicolas Jackson suspended and several key players sidelined for both teams, Enzo Maresca's men are heavy favourites to secure a comfortable victory against Ruben Amorim's side who have little left to play for domestically.
Chelsea vs. Manchester Utd prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Chelsea vs Manchester Utd matchup, our predictive model gives the Blues an 85% chance of defeating the Red Devils.
Pre-game probabilities
Chelsea
Moneyline
Win %
85%
15%
Manchester Utd
Chelsea: 85% win probability
- Superior recent form (LWWWD) showing consistency over the last five matches (Supporting statistic: Chelsea have lost just once in their last five matches)
- More potent attack with 62 goals scored versus United's 42 (Supporting statistic: Chelsea average 1.72 goals per match compared to United's 1.17)
- Significantly better defensive record (Supporting statistic: Chelsea have conceded 43 goals compared to United's 53, averaging 1.19 vs 1.47 goals against per match)
Manchester Utd: 15% win probability
- Poor recent form (LLDLL) indicates serious struggles (Supporting statistic: United have lost 3 of their last 5 matches and failed to win any)
- Defensive vulnerability on the road (Supporting statistic: United have conceded 53 goals this season, 10 more than Chelsea)
- Lower table position and points total (Supporting statistic: United sit 16th with 39 points, while Chelsea are 5th with 63 points - a 24-point gap)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts.
Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts.
| Chelsea | Manchester Utd | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result |
Chelsea vs. Manchester Utd preview
Chelsea host Manchester United at Stamford Bridge this Friday in a clash where only one side has something meaningful left to play for this season.
The Blues, pushing hard for a top-five finish and Champions League qualification, have won five of their last six games despite a recent setback at Newcastle, where Nicolas Jackson's first-half dismissal proved costly.
United, meanwhile, appear to have mentally checked out of their Premier League campaign with one eye firmly fixed on their upcoming Europa League final against Tottenham – a trophy that represents their only route to salvaging anything from a disappointing season.
Erik ten Hag's men sit 16th in the table and haven't won in seven league outings, shipping four goals in recent defeats to both Brentford and Newcastle.
With Jackson suspended for Chelsea, look for Enzo Fernandez to continue his attacking influence after contributing a goal and four assists in his last five appearances across all competitions.
The Blues' impressive home record – unbeaten in their last nine league matches at Stamford Bridge – stands in stark contrast to United's away form, with the Red Devils winless in their last four Premier League road trips.
Chelsea vs. Manchester Utd form
Chelsea vs. Manchester Utd head to head
Chelsea
33%
Manchester Utd
67%
Nov 3, 2024
Manchester Utd
1 : 1
Chelsea
Apr 4, 2024
Chelsea
4 : 3
Manchester Utd
Dec 6, 2023
Manchester Utd
2 : 1
Chelsea
May 25, 2023
Manchester Utd
4 : 1
Chelsea
Oct 22, 2022
Chelsea
1 : 1
Manchester Utd
Apr 28, 2022
Manchester Utd
1 : 1
Chelsea
