Arsenal and Newcastle face a pivotal Premier League showdown at Emirates Stadium on Sunday with second place in the standings at stake, though the Gunners enter on shaky ground after going winless in their last five matches.
The Magpies arrive with momentum after beating Chelsea 2-0 last weekend and having already defeated Arsenal three times this season without conceding a goal.
With Arsenal's defensive struggles continuing and key players like Gabriel, Havertz, and Jesus sidelined through injury, Newcastle could capitalize on the hosts' vulnerabilities to secure a result that would dramatically impact the race for Champions League positioning.
Arsenal vs. Newcastle prediction: who will win?
For today's Arsenal vs Newcastle matchup, our predictive model gives the Gunners a 59% chance of defeating the Magpies.
Pre-game probabilities
Arsenal
Moneyline
Win %
59%
41%
Newcastle
Arsenal: 59% win probability
- Strong defensive record (33 goals conceded, 2nd best in the league)
- Excellent home form (draw-heavy but only 4 losses all season)
- Superior position in table (2nd place with 68 points compared to Newcastle's 66 points in 3rd)
Newcastle: 41% win probability
- Inconsistent away form (more losses on the road than Arsenal)
- Defensive vulnerability (45 goals conceded compared to Arsenal's 33)
- Recent form concerns (mixed WDWLW pattern suggests inconsistency)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts.
Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts.
| Arsenal | Newcastle | Draw | |
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Arsenal vs. Newcastle preview
Arsenal's fading title hopes have given way to a new battle as they host Newcastle with second place in the Premier League now at stake in what could be a season-defining clash at the Emirates.
The Gunners enter this fixture on shaky ground – winless in their last five matches and showing uncharacteristic defensive frailty after conceding nine goals during that stretch.
Newcastle, meanwhile, arrive in blistering form having won eight of their last ten games, including three consecutive victories against Arsenal this season without conceding a single goal.
Mikel Arteta faces a significant selection headache with Gabriel, Havertz, and Jesus sidelined through injury while Merino serves a suspension following his red card against Liverpool.
The Magpies will fancy their chances with in-form Alexander Isak leading the line – the Swedish striker has already netted twice against Arsenal this term and boasts 23 league goals in a remarkable campaign.
History suggests a tightly contested affair with nine of the last ten meetings producing fewer than three goals, though Newcastle's unprecedented opportunity to leapfrog Arsenal into second place adds an extra dimension to Sunday's showdown.
Arsenal vs. Newcastle form
Arsenal vs. Newcastle head to head
Arsenal
33%
Newcastle
67%
Feb 5, 2025
Newcastle
2 : 0
Arsenal
Jan 7, 2025
Arsenal
0 : 2
Newcastle
Nov 2, 2024
Newcastle
1 : 0
Arsenal
Feb 24, 2024
Arsenal
4 : 1
Newcastle
Nov 4, 2023
Newcastle
1 : 0
Arsenal
May 7, 2023
Newcastle
0 : 2
Arsenal
