Manchester City, seeking to bounce back from their FA Cup loss to Crystal Palace, face a resilient Bournemouth side with European ambitions at the Etihad Stadium in what could be Kevin De Bruyne's final home appearance for the club.
Pep Guardiola's men have struggled for goals recently, failing to score in their last two matches, while the visiting Cherries have shown defensive discipline with under 2.5 goals landing in four of their previous five starts.
With City sitting precariously in sixth place and Bournemouth just two points shy of a potential European spot, both teams have everything to play for in this crucial Premier League clash.
Manchester City vs. Bournemouth prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Manchester City vs Bournemouth matchup, our predictive model gives City a 67.5% chance of defeating the Cherries.
Pre-game probabilities
Manchester City
Moneyline
Win %
67.5%
32.5%
Bournemouth
Manchester City: 67.5% win probability
- Exceptional goal-scoring form (67 goals in 36 matches, averaging 1.86 goals per game)
- Strong current momentum (DWWWW in recent form, unbeaten in last 5 matches)
- Dominant home record (City typically performs better at Etihad Stadium, boosting their already impressive 65-point tally)
Bournemouth: 32.5% win probability
- Inconsistent recent form (LWDDW shows inability to string together consecutive wins)
- Defensive vulnerability (43 goals conceded, potentially problematic against City's potent attack)
- Poor away performance (Bournemouth typically struggles on the road against top-6 sides, with City sitting 6th with a game in hand)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts.
Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts.
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result |
Manchester City vs. Bournemouth preview
Manchester City welcome Bournemouth to the Etihad desperately needing to shake off their FA Cup disappointment and revive their faltering league campaign, with Pep Guardiola's side suddenly finding themselves in a precarious sixth position after consecutive blanks against Crystal Palace and Southampton.
This fixture marks Kevin De Bruyne's farewell appearance at the Etihad before his summer departure, adding emotional weight to a match City simply cannot afford to drop points in.
Bournemouth arrive with European ambitions of their own, sitting just two points shy of a potential continental qualification spot, though Andoni Iraola's men have struggled creatively of late, failing to generate even 1.0 expected goals in any of their last four outings.
The visitors' defensive solidity has been impressive on their travels—remaining unbeaten in four away league fixtures—while City's usually free-flowing attack has suddenly become uncharacteristically blunt, with under 2.5 goals landing in seven of their last nine matches.
Both sides are missing key personnel, with City deprived of defenders Nathan Aké and John Stones, while Bournemouth travel north without attacking options Luis Sinisterra, Dango Ouattara, Ryan Christie and Enes Ünal.
Manchester City vs. Bournemouth form
Manchester City vs. Bournemouth head to head
Manchester City
83%
Bournemouth
17%
Mar 30, 2025
Bournemouth
1 : 2
Manchester City
Nov 2, 2024
Bournemouth
2 : 1
Manchester City
Feb 24, 2024
Bournemouth
0 : 1
Manchester City
Nov 4, 2023
Manchester City
6 : 1
Bournemouth
Feb 25, 2023
Bournemouth
1 : 4
Manchester City
Aug 13, 2022
Manchester City
4 : 0
Bournemouth
