Newcastle United look to secure a crucial top-three finish as they host mid-table Everton at St. James' Park in the Premier League season finale.
Despite coming off a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal, the Magpies enter as strong favorites against an Everton side that has nothing to play for beyond pride, having already secured 13th place.
With Alexander Isak expected to return to Newcastle's lineup and Everton's poor away record against the Magpies (winless in their last four visits), Eddie Howe's men appear poised to end their campaign on a high note.
Newcastle vs. Everton prediction: who will win?
For today's Newcastle vs Everton matchup, our predictive model gives the Magpies a 82.5% chance of defeating the Toffees.
Pre-game probabilities
Newcastle
Moneyline
Win %
82.5%
17.5%
Everton
Newcastle: 82.5% win probability
- Superior goal-scoring threat (68 goals scored this season, 25 more than Everton)
- Excellent home form (Currently 4th in the table with 66 points, suggesting strong performances at St. James' Park)
- Momentum advantage (LWDWL recent form shows 3 wins in their last 5 matches)
Everton: 17.5% win probability
- Poor away record (Currently 13th in the table with just 45 points, 21 points behind Newcastle)
- Defensive vulnerability (44 goals conceded, showing potential weakness against Newcastle's attacking threat)
- Recent form decline (WWDLL indicates a downturn with consecutive losses in their last two matches)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts..
| Newcastle | Everton | Draw | |
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| Match Result |
Newcastle vs. Everton preview
Newcastle will be desperate to bounce back from their 1-0 defeat to Arsenal as they host Everton on Sunday with a potential top-three finish still in their grasp.
Eddie Howe's men have been formidable at St. James' Park, remaining unbeaten in their last six home league fixtures despite missing several key players through injury.
While Alexander Isak looks set to return to the lineup, Newcastle will continue to cope without Lewis Hall, Matt Targett and others as they chase a crucial three points.
Everton, under David Moyes, arrive in solid form after back-to-back victories over Fulham and Southampton, with Iliman Ndiaye's recent double highlighting their attacking threat.
The Toffees, comfortably mid-table in 13th, have historically struggled at Newcastle, failing to secure a win in their last four visits.
With nothing but pride at stake for the visitors and significant absences in James Tarkowski, Jesper Lindstrom and Orel Mangala, Newcastle will fancy their chances of improving on October's goalless draw between the sides.
Newcastle vs. Everton form
Newcastle vs. Everton head to head
Newcastle
50%
Everton
50%
Oct 5, 2024
Everton
0 : 0
Newcastle
Apr 2, 2024
Newcastle
1 : 1
Everton
Dec 7, 2023
Everton
3 : 0
Newcastle
Apr 27, 2023
Everton
1 : 4
Newcastle
Oct 19, 2022
Newcastle
1 : 0
Everton
Mar 17, 2022
Everton
1 : 0
Newcastle
